General Election Straw Poll/result Predictor

[HamCam]

I leafleted and campaigned over the past few weeks and there were some interesting views. SNP supporters voting Conservative as they didnt want another referendum or voting Conservative because they wanted out of Europe. There were also anti SNP votes becaused they despised Nicola Sturgeon, particularly from women.

 

I always thought Salmond was a marmite character for some but not so Sturgeon - I was wrong! I find its strange how many women appear to 'despise' Sturgeon. She got 'her' campaign wrong pushing indyref2 and despite trying to row back over recent weeks the damage was done and many who previously voted SNP jumped ship. Depressing that this pattern of voting appears to have helped the Tories regain a foothold in Scotland - people have such short memories.

[vikingTON]

Bless - I remember when people were making the same claims about 'peak Nat!!!!111!!!!' in 2010, when Labour won the General Election in Scotland with something like 40 seats to the SNP's 6. Within twelve months the SNP had secured a landslide majority government from a system designed to stop that from ever happening. 

 

Brexit forced Sturgeon's hand on the issue of a second referendum when she had no intention of raising the issue upon entering office. Now Brexit will allow her to take it off the table, as the Scottish Government's priority of staying in the Single Market is now a distinct possibility within the current Parliament. The SNP needs to focus on its own internal party performance right now and is lucky that it has a set of highly capable political figures out of parliament (not you, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh) who can look at two pretty weak party campaigns this year and suggest reforms. Robertson, Salmond and the likes of John Nicholson will all be heavily involved behind the scenes IMO. It's all speculation at the moment but an SNP ticket for the Holyrood election in 2021 (?) based on good governance and more powers for Scotland, bolstered by the entry of several big hitters like Robertson to the Holyrood front benches should be their next move. 

[TONofmemories]

Bless - I remember when people were making the same claims about 'peak Nat!!!!111!!!!' in 2010, when Labour won the General Election in Scotland with something like 40 seats to the SNP's 6. Within twelve months the SNP had secured a landslide majority government from a system designed to stop that from ever happening. 

 

Brexit forced Sturgeon's hand on the issue of a second referendum when she had no intention of raising the issue upon entering office. Now Brexit will allow her to take it off the table, as the Scottish Government's priority of staying in the Single Market is now a distinct possibility within the current Parliament. The SNP needs to focus on its own internal party performance right now and is lucky that it has a set of highly capable political figures out of parliament (not you, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh) who can look at two pretty weak party campaigns this year and suggest reforms. Robertson, Salmond and the likes of John Nicholson will all be heavily involved behind the scenes IMO. It's all speculation at the moment but an SNP ticket for the Holyrood election in 2021 (?) based on good governance and more powers for Scotland, bolstered by the entry of several big hitters like Robertson to the Holyrood front benches should be their next move. 

 

Tl;dr

[vikingTON]

Just as well that the comprehensive SNP win in Scotland can be viewed in picture format:

 

 

 

'Duh-miiiiise!'

[Deano1874]

Salavating over the SNP's apparent demise because they've won 3-2, as opposed to their previous 6-0 result, is daft and misguided. It's possibly the most ineffective and unpopular campaign they've ever led, had yet they've still won and achieved their second best result in a General Election.

[TONofmemories]

They'll continue to decline, though, unless they start addressing matters at hand instead of trying to force through a second referendum. 

 

That's really the sole reason they have a backing and even that is faiding slowly.

[Ghost]

The result in Scotland was pleasing, long may it continue

[TRVMP]

Interested in that one vote for Tory coalition. With whom will they form a coalition?

 

Fair play to whoever predicted that a few days ago btw.

[Alibi]

I don't think a Tory government propped up by the DUP is going to play well in Scotland (and possibly not in the rUK either) - except maybe with a certain demographic that used to be into football but lost interest when their team died.  Remember how the Tories' campaign in 2015 was all about Milliband being in Salmond's pocket?  Bit hypocritical of them to climb into the pocket of whoever the DUP leader is now.

 

I forecast there will be another UK election within a fairly short time.  A lame duck Tory government is going to crash and burn.

[TaunTon]

The tory party and the DUP are perfect bedfellows and deserve each other. Being allied to a party of unreconstructed bigots and bible bashing homophobes is just the look that a modern party should be going for.

[TONofmemories]

I don't think a Tory government propped up by the DUP is going to play well in Scotland (and possibly not in the rUK either) - except maybe with a certain demographic that used to be into football but lost interest when their team died.  Remember how the Tories' campaign in 2015 was all about Milliband being in Salmond's pocket?  Bit hypocritical of them to climb into the pocket of whoever the DUP leader is now.

 

I forecast there will be another UK election within a fairly short time.  A lame duck Tory government is going to crash and burn.

 

Out of interest, is there a mechanism for that to happen?

[Cet Homme Charmant]

The Tories have spent the last two years playing Russian roulette with the electorate in the hope of cementing their credibility, and causing utter shambles along the way. I genuinely feel sorry for the millions and millions of non-Tory voters who have done absolutely nothing to deserve the utter chaos they now find themselves in the middle of. 

[HamCam]

The Tories have spent the last two years playing Russian roulette with the electorate in the hope of cementing their credibility, and causing utter shambles along the way. I genuinely feel sorry for the millions and millions of non-Tory voters who have done absolutely nothing to deserve the utter chaos they now find themselves in the middle of. 

 

Thanks for your pity but I prefer money - I will pm you my bank details.

[Cet Homme Charmant]

Thanks for your pity but I prefer money - I will pm you my bank details.

The way the pound's going a couple of Euros will feed a family of 5 for a month.

[Toulouse Le Plot]

The SNP range in the Scottish part of the exit poll is between 21 and 50 i.e. not worth the paper it is written on. Anything less than 40 is poor, but I'm sticking with a solid 44.

 

  

Put this on the big forum so will copy and paste now:

 

 

The SNP campaign was difficult because of i) incumbency in both Westminster constituencies and ii) Holyrood government (for ten years now FFS); they've also probably been squeezed by there being an undoubtedly clearer difference in policies between Labour and Conservative. They didn't really make a coherent case for having SNP candidates at Westminster even to Yes voters and in the last few days the tactical voting messages were rather piss-poor and off-putting. 

 

That said they will still be crushing victors overall and there will be no coherent message on Indyref2 coming up from London.

 

  

I haven't been paying close attention, saw low 30s on the BBC site and that was remarkably low. Would be very happy with anything over 40.

  

Big Eck losing his seat would be utterly disgraceful, and a sign that this country just isn't fit for democracy.

  

Ooft.

I didn't see any of this coming a few weeks ago.

Poor Eck.

 

[Toulouse Le Plot]

Will be seething if the tuechtar, farmer **** turf Salmond out.

:lol:

[cmdc]

Out of interest, is there a mechanism for that to happen?

If a simple majority in the Commons passes a vote of no confidence or if 2/3 of Commons pass motion that there will be an early general election. The latter is what was used to call the election just passed. Previously was (more or less) at the discretion of the PM but law was changed by the coalition in 2011.

[GiGi]

Interested in that one vote for Tory coalition. With whom will they form a coalition?

 

MUSSUS BUNFIELD

[TRVMP]

For the next few years OUWER COMMUNITEIGH will enjoy chuddar cheese and pineapple on a stuck.

[GiGi]

AMPTAY WERDS