Mr Toon Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Who expects Dunfermline and their dung squad to be 'title challengers'? Be extremely specific. Being extremely specific and further defining 'challengers' as top three which seems reasonable, the bookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 The bookies' prices in the Scottish lower leagues reflect the volume of betting within a tiny market more than they do genuine calculations of a side's chances. Hence why Dunfermline with the gormless backing of their large fanbase are 11/2 to win the league - while Queen of the South are 16/1 - yet Queen of the South are actually shorter than Dunfermline to finish in the top four, a market that isn't skewed by significant backing either way. So a dung, fourth-rate horse in a one horse race then: truly breathtaking stuff to grab a point! The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before.. So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Toon Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 I suppose it depends on which bookies' odds you take but nonetheless they make their living by getting it right more often than not. I presume that your one horse is Dundee United ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRVMP Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 I suppose it depends on which bookies' odds you take but nonetheless they make their living by getting it right more often than not. I presume that your one horse is Dundee United ? They make their living by overround and avoiding exposure, and while these often correspond to getting it "right" that's because of the (relative) wisdom of crowds. So when a book is first opened, a bookie isn't just looking at probability but also at expected exposure. This is why, for example, Brazil and (to a surprisingly lesser extent) England are always overpriced at the World Cup, not because they're expected to get to the final every year by the bookies but rather they are expected thus by large numbers of the customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Toon Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 They make their living by overround and avoiding exposure, and while these often correspond to getting it "right" that's because of the (relative) wisdom of crowds. So when a book is first opened, a bookie isn't just looking at probability but also at expected exposure. This is why, for example, Brazil and (to a surprisingly lesser extent) England are always overpriced at the World Cup, not because they're expected to get to the final every year by the bookies but rather they are expected thus by large numbers of the customers. That is a fair summation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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