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I appreciate your point but not sure it is helpful for it to be described as just a flu. The PM's description of it as the "worst public health crisis for a generation" is telling.

 

Why does it matter who it kills? Most on this messageboard have relatives and friends who are in the higher age risk category.

 

A: Because there are already plenty of common or garden diseases out there in the big bad world that we deal with all the time: in 2008-09 a single predominant strain of the virus killed 13,000 people in the UK: some twenty times more than usual. Most of them were in the same vulnerable group categories as those for this current virus. We didn't shut down vast tracts of our economic and social life to 'contain' that threat back then though - because an already acknowledged threat is simply nowhere near as box office scary as a weirdo new one.

 

If you're going to try and take a logical approach to risk management then you can't start by getting all doe-eyed and weepy about all the individual consequences of your actions. Instead, most Western governments have been predictably i) far too slow off the mark in preventing its entry into their countries and now ii) lurching all over the place with useless measures to try and show the public that Something is Being Done About It.

The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before..

 

So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are

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The point is that you cannot say with any confidence at this stage that this is merely a seasonal flu with predictable outcomes. The odds are that this is the case. But there is a nonzero chance that it is not the case. Given that the outcomes of this non-zero chance could potentially be devastating, it makes sense to treat this with far more caution than we would a regular seasonal flu.

 

The hope, and in fact that the likelihood, is that one summer rolls around we will look back on this and wonder what all the fuss was about. We will also wonder if we caused the recession by a panic. This is actually the better case scenario than doing nothing.

 

Our world is incredibly complex, globalized, and fragile. Should we wish to continue in such a world then we need to recognize the dangers of this fragility. It only takes one mistake with potentially devastating consequences to knock everything down.

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Every seasonal flu epidemic has a non-zero chance of turning very nasty as well though. In fact, flu already has a long, proven track record of doing so at least once in every generation. Scientists know that it mutates very quickly; whereas the hundreds of viruses that can cause the common cold on the other hand are relatively stable and predictable beasts. Yet there has been no similar mass public shutdown for a single seasonal flu outbreak for a century: despite it posing a perfectly real risk to the wider public (and a similar serious illness rate to the current virus in many years).

 

In any case, the issue here isn't an overreaction: it's an incompetent and disorganised reaction. The fact that schools are, for the time being, still planned to be open until at least the end of next week in the UK is not a credible public health response to an airborne epidemic. Sturgeon or any other politician lecturing anyone right now about how the Montrose game can't go ahead while letting those obvious sites of infection stay open is ludicrous. 

The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before..

 

So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are

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Seasonal flu doesn't generally transmit asymptomatically, at least nowhere near as readily. This is part of the reason H1N1 hit so badly in 2009. With that knowledge, we shouldn't say "oh 13k died in 2009 and it was no big deal, so this should be no big deal as well." We should instead say that the response to 2009 was clearly insufficient.

 

I agree totally about schools in particular.

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Seasonal flu doesn't generally transmit asymptomatically, at least nowhere near as readily. This is part of the reason H1N1 hit so badly in 2009. With that knowledge, we shouldn't say "oh 13k died in 2009 and it was no big deal, so this should be no big deal as well." We should instead say that the response to 2009 was clearly insufficient.

 

I agree totally about schools in particular.

The problem with closing schools is parents going to work and leaving children with elderly relatives or dragging them round shops when they are more likely to start touching things and spreading infection. Yes, they'll be with other kids and it will spread but they'll be isolated more from the vulnerable. If we're looking at the economy then there's also childcare (or lack of) to consider if parents can't work.

 

I'd imagine there's an risk assessment on both but it's not as straightforward as just comparing with other types of gathering.

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How on earth are they ‘isolated from the vulnerable’: do they come out of school and get immediately shoved into a cupboard underneath the stairs for the night? They’re exposing grandparents to the virus through childcare and ordinary family contact all the time.

 

The absolutely obvious, number one tactic for limiting the spread of any airborne virus is to close public schools ASAP. If the UK governments were following the best medical advice - instead of pick and mixing only the measures that they want to deal with - then it would have already happened in the UK days if not weeks ago. Just right now President Macron has announced the closure of all schools, colleges and universities in France. Too late to stop at least a moderate epidemic from taking place though.

The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before..

 

So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are

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How on earth are they ‘isolated from the vulnerable’: do they come out of school and get immediately shoved into a cupboard underneath the stairs for the night? They’re exposing grandparents to the virus through childcare and ordinary family contact all the time.

 

The absolutely obvious, number one tactic for limiting the spread of any airborne virus is to close public schools ASAP. If the UK governments were following the best medical advice - instead of pick and mixing only the measures that they want to deal with - then it would have already happened in the UK days if not weeks ago. Just right now President Macron has announced the closure of all schools, colleges and universities in France. Too late to stop at least a moderate epidemic from taking place though.

Ehhh because their parents can watch them at night when they finish work and don't need to leave them with relatives or take them shopping or anything.

 

Like I said, there will be risks on both sides but it's not as black and white as you'd like to make out.

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The problem with closing schools is parents going to work and leaving children with elderly relatives or dragging them round shops when they are more likely to start touching things and spreading infection. Yes, they'll be with other kids and it will spread but they'll be isolated more from the vulnerable. If we're looking at the economy then there's also childcare (or lack of) to consider if parents can't work.

 

I'd imagine there's an risk assessment on both but it's not as straightforward as just comparing with other types of gathering.

 

You're right that it's far from simple, especially when households where both (or, in single parent households, the only) parents go to work, but schools are an absolute crucible of pathogens. This has to be the lesser evil.

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You're right that it's far from simple, especially when households where both (or, in single parent households, the only) parents go to work, but schools are an absolute crucible of pathogens. This has to be the lesser evil.

There's obviously a tipping point and it's probably coming soon but the various authorities need to get their guidance, etc in order as well to help reduce impact on students. They'll all be working on contingency plans for remote learning and so on for this but another other thing to consider is vulnerable children (in terms of being looked after and their wellbeing rather than health).

 

There's probably a lot more to factor in (such as preparing the wider world by doing things like stopping public gatherings before letting a load of kids who don't wash their hands and want to touch everything get out and about in it).

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You're right that it's far from simple, especially when households where both (or, in single parent households, the only) parents go to work, but schools are an absolute crucible of pathogens. This has to be the lesser evil.

 

Same for a lot of workplaces. Call centres, for example, have a couple of hundred people cooped up with no fresh air getting near the place, shared desks, phone headsets etc - it's really hard to see how it's fine to be stuck in there for 8 hours or so a day 5 days a week, but going to Cappielow on a Saturday isn't.

 

At the end of all of this should be a serious re-evaluation of...well, just about everything, really, but top of the list should be employment rights and sick-pay to ensure that people aren't forced into work (especially) in the midst of a pandemic, another of which is surely inevitable if international travel is allowed to continue unfettered, which it absolutely should not be in the age of the climate crisis. 

AWMSC

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Same for a lot of workplaces. Call centres, for example, have a couple of hundred people cooped up with no fresh air getting near the place, shared desks, phone headsets etc - it's really hard to see how it's fine to be stuck in there for 8 hours or so a day 5 days a week, but going to Cappielow on a Saturday isn't.

 

At the end of all of this should be a serious re-evaluation of...well, just about everything, really, but top of the list should be employment rights and sick-pay to ensure that people aren't forced into work (especially) in the midst of a pandemic, another of which is surely inevitable if international travel is allowed to continue unfettered, which it absolutely should not be in the age of the climate crisis.

I see Amazon are being nice and allowing unlimited unpaid sick days for their staff...

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If nothing else, it seems remarkably stupid as somebody could go in thinking they've just got a cold and smite half the work-force with COVID-19. Where would they be then, I wonder? It's surely better to have a handful of folk off for a few days than a huge chunk of your workforce for potentially a lot longer.

 

They're not alone though, and the time of reckoning with these companies is well over-due. 

AWMSC

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There's obviously a tipping point and it's probably coming soon but the various authorities need to get their guidance, etc in order as well to help reduce impact on students. They'll all be working on contingency plans for remote learning and so on for this but another other thing to consider is vulnerable children (in terms of being looked after and their wellbeing rather than health).

 

There's probably a lot more to factor in (such as preparing the wider world by doing things like stopping public gatherings before letting a load of kids who don't wash their hands and want to touch everything get out and about in it).

 

It's instructive, and this isn't a criticism of Scottish schools in particular, that we don't already have guidance, contingency plans etc. already in place. Maybe it's a relic of the Cold War but there used to be continuity plans for almost every facet of public life, even if that plan was "sit in place and wait." I mean, it hardly takes Nostradamus to point out that at some point, there's going to be a massive terror attack or state warfare, there's going to be a pandemic or a bioweapon, there's going to be an EMP attack or an EMP weather event that knocks out power for weeks at a time. Or is everything just going to go on in a solid state forever? (Vertical farming. "Of course, some people say it would be vulnerable in a strong wind, but who says there's going to be a strong wind?")

 

The biggest failing of the globalized, market economy - for all the good it's done, and there's a lot of it - is that short-termism is the be-all end-all of everything, and contingency planning has by and large been outsourced.

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It's instructive, and this isn't a criticism of Scottish schools in particular, that we don't already have guidance, contingency plans etc. already in place. Maybe it's a relic of the Cold War but there used to be continuity plans for almost every facet of public life, even if that plan was "sit in place and wait." I mean, it hardly takes Nostradamus to point out that at some point, there's going to be a massive terror attack or state warfare, there's going to be a pandemic or a bioweapon, there's going to be an EMP attack or an EMP weather event that knocks out power for weeks at a time. Or is everything just going to go on in a solid state forever? (Vertical farming. "Of course, some people say it would be vulnerable in a strong wind, but who says there's going to be a strong wind?")

 

The biggest failing of the globalized, market economy - for all the good it's done, and there's a lot of it - is that short-termism is the be-all end-all of everything, and contingency planning has by and large been outsourced.

There is an element of criticism in there tbf. It's all regionalised and some of the authorities are really up to speed with their digital strategies and could support remote learning without much hassle but others have no idea.

 

I'm probably biased because I work with it but the tools and choice available (o365, g suite, WordPress as free managed services for the authorities) means there shouldn't be an excuse not to use them.

 

It's the fact that they don't that will be factored into any decision about closures too just from an education point of view.

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I know less than nothing about the regions or the setup, my criticism is instead aimed at the general mindset that we've been in for years, which is absolute complacency. I'm as guilty of it as anyone, I was swanning about the airport and flights not two weeks ago.

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How on earth are they ‘isolated from the vulnerable’: do they come out of school and get immediately shoved into a cupboard underneath the stairs for the night? They’re exposing grandparents to the virus through childcare and ordinary family contact all the time.

 

The absolutely obvious, number one tactic for limiting the spread of any airborne virus is to close public schools ASAP. If the UK governments were following the best medical advice - instead of pick and mixing only the measures that they want to deal with - then it would have already happened in the UK days if not weeks ago. Just right now President Macron has announced the closure of all schools, colleges and universities in France. Too late to stop at least a moderate epidemic from taking place though.

 

I agree with you about schools, or at least I did initially, but I can see the counter argument too.  They should imho be closed from tonight.  If action is needed, it should be immediate, not delayed.  However the logic behind keeping them open is that if they send all the kids home, people may not be able to go to work in the health service and other places and that could affect treatment of CV victims; also sending kids home isn't going to stop them meeting up unless you lock them in their rooms.  It probably fragments the size of the groups though, and that would at least help a bit.  It's a tricky decision but basically what has happened is that the UK government has not acted when it should have.  It's probably too late now.  To let the bigot brothers' game go ahead on Sunday is I think a misjudgement that just looks like trying not to upset their fanbases.  Given that at least the SG look as if they are wanting to act, maybe they should just implement a complete strategy that suits Scotland, rather than let that clown Johnson have any input whatsoever.

"Any nation given the opportunity to regain its national sovereignty and which then rejects it is so far beneath contempt that it is hard to put words to it."

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Ehhh because their parents can watch them at night when they finish work and don't need to leave them with relatives or take them shopping or anything.

 

Are you aware that this outbreak is taking place in 2020 and not 1947? That's not even remotely the case for millions of family units across the UK, where at least some element of additional childcare - from the extended family members or private individuals/afterschool groups - is already required while both parents are out at work until the early evening. And even if the parents are lucky enough to have jobs that fit neatly around their precious sprogs' schooling, they're still going to come into regular contact with older members of their family unit. So the kids pass the virus between themselves, then to the parents, then to grandparents as usual.

 

And you've quite clearly never been to a local supermarket if you think that parents aren't already dragging their horrible children through them on a regular basis like some Typhoid Mary figures.

 

Like I said, there will be risks on both sides but it's not as black and white as you'd like to make out.

 

 

There are no credible health risks to closing public schools at the beginning of an outbreak. The UK governments are instead weighing it up against the significant economic and political costs of that action: which is why they're going for ridiculous token gestures like shutting down gatherings of 500 healthy adults now while letting a school of 2000 children pump the virus out into the local community unimpeded for at least another week.

The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before..

 

So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are

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I agree with you about schools, or at least I did initially, but I can see the counter argument too.  They should imho be closed from tonight.  If action is needed, it should be immediate, not delayed.  However the logic behind keeping them open is that if they send all the kids home, people may not be able to go to work in the health service and other places and that could affect treatment of CV victims; also sending kids home isn't going to stop them meeting up unless you lock them in their rooms. 

 

Firstly, that argument isn't even applicable right now. The confirmed number of cases is still low and the number that require hospital treatment is a fraction of that total. The time to close public schools then is while the burden on healthcare workers is still relatively low and so any issues with finding childcare are not suddenly impacting the care system at a critical point in the outbreak.

 

And if you close the schools soon enough then you limit the chances of a significant outbreak in the first place. This is why all the non-clowncar countries decided on that measure after just a handful of cases.

 

Secondly, the 'healthcare workers needing to look after their own kids' claim is not a valid argument for keeping schools open - it's an obvious argument for the government to provide generous childcare credits to healthcare and other critical workers in the event of a public health crisis or any other national emergency instead. The fact that this is not already in place suggests either the government has been completely unprepared, or its 'we can't close down schools for public health reasons' line is a crock of shit, or quite probably both.

 

Public schools will be closed down in the near future: it will just prove nowhere near as effective at that point as it would have done a few weeks ago and all of the downsides cited will likely remain in play. So that's an all-round failure of policy then.

The site is supposed to be a place for the extended 'family' of Morton supporters - having an affinity with people that you don't know, because you share a love of your local football club. It's not supposed to be about point scoring and showing how 'clever' or 'funny' you are, or just being downright rude and offensive to people you don't know, because you can get away with it. Unfortunately, it seems the classic case of people who have little standing/presence in real life, use this forum as a way of making themselves feel as if they are something. It's sad, and I've said that before..

 

So, having been on Morton forums for about 15 years I guess, I've had enough... well done t*ssers, another Morton supporter driven away. You can all feel happy at how 'clever' you are

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That's not even remotely the case for millions of family units across the UK, where at least some element of additional childcare - from the extended family members or private individuals/afterschool groups - is already required while both parents are out at work until the early evening.

 

 

And the other millions and children in care and so on? You've not got a clue here so best stopping while you're only a bit behind.

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